ITC Limited Max Pain Analysis
What is Max Pain?
Max Pain theory states the underlying gravitates toward the strike where option writers face minimum collective loss at expiry. For ITC, that strike is ₹300. Spot at ₹305.6 is 1.87% above max pain — possible downward gravitational pull into expiry.
Max Pain Level
The max pain for ITC options expiring on 2026-04-28 is ₹300, the strike where option writers face minimal loss. This level often acts as a magnetic pull for the spot price near expiry due to writer positioning.
Spot vs Max Pain Gap
ITC spot at ₹305.6 trades 1.87% above the ₹300 pain level, creating a positive gap. This suggests downward pressure may build as the expiry approaches to reduce writer liability.
Shift Signal
The max pain level remains unchanged from yesterday, indicating stable positioning among option sellers. Minimal shift reflects neutral sentiment in open interest buildup across strikes.
Expiry Bias
With spot above max pain and a static pain level, a downward drift toward ₹300 is favored over the next 7 days. The bias strengthens as time decay accelerates, particularly within the final 5 days to expiry.
Trader Note
With over 5 days to expiry and spot above max pain, premium decay strategies like short calls or credit spreads may be viable.
Data as of 2026-04-21